Test Dairy Cows Before Hauling Them Out of State
Published: Friday, May 3, 2024
The following is from Lee Mielke, author of a dairy market column known as "Mielke Market Weekly."
Dairy cows moving across state lines must now be tested for bird flu as per USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service mandate. The agency found that the same H5N1 virus genotype that has impacted dairy cows is also affecting poultry flocks. The agency says the disease can spread cattle-to-cattle, as evidenced by transmission via movement between herds. The virus also spreads from dairy cattle premises back into nearby poultry premises.
The media have reported that dead particles from the virus have been detected in pasteurized milk purchased at stores. However, there's more to the story. A press release from National Milk states, "The Food and Drug Administration confirmed again that pasteurization of milk consistent with the Grade 'A' Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO) destroys harmful pathogenic bacteria and other microorganisms, including Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and other viruses. The data cited by FDA is consistent with many other studies demonstrating that the legally required temperature and time for milk pasteurization will readily inactivate HPAI. Viral fragments detected after pasteurization are nothing more than evidence that the virus is dead; they have zero impact on human health. Further, the PMO prohibits milk from sick cows from entering the food supply."
The latest Livestock Slaughter report showed an estimated 244,600 head were sent to slaughter under federal inspection in March, down 8,100 from February, and 61,600 head, or 20.1%, below March 2023.
Dairy cow slaughter for the week ending April 13 totaled 55,100 head, down 2,300 from the previous week, and 5,200, or 8.6%, below a year ago. Year to date, 860,300 head have been culled, down 134,100, or 13.5%, from a year ago.
The 2023 "Livestock Slaughter Summary" showed 3.08 million dairy cows were slaughtered in 2023, up from 3.05 million in 2022. The highest monthly total, 306,200 head, was in March. The lowest was 224,700 in December.
Butter inventories continue to climb and hit 316.6 million pounds on March 31, according to the latest Cold Storage report. Stocks were up 18.9 million pounds, or 6.4%, from February's count, which was revised up 1.9 million pounds, and were 7.1 million pounds, or 2.3%, above those in March 2023.
American-type cheese stocks fell to 825.6 million pounds, down 4.9 million, or .6%, from the February level which was revised down 2.3 million pounds, and were down 1.2 million pounds, or .1%, from a year ago.
The "other" cheese category holdings hit 610.8 million pounds, up 5 million, or .1%, from February's count, which was revised 2.4 million pounds lower. Stocks were down 1.2 million pounds, or .2%, from a year ago.
The total cheese inventory stood at 1.459 billion pounds, up 967,000 pounds, or .1%, from February, but 1.2 million pounds, or .1%, below that of a year ago.
Cash butter started the Earth Day Week hitting $3 per pound last Monday, a price not seen since Nov. 6, 2023, but finished last Friday at $2.97, up a nickel on the week and 61.75 cents above a year ago, on 35 sales for the week.
Midwest butter stocks are widely available, according to Dairy Market News, despite reported concerns about mid-to longer-term cream availability and summer just months away. Spot cream multiples remain in or around the 1.10s.
Butter production is strong in the West and cream is generally available. Multiples remain flat to above flat market. Domestic butter demand ranges from slightly higher to slightly lighter. Demand from Canadian buyers has been consistent while international demand is moderate, according to DMN.
Block Cheddar shot up 8 cents last Monday to $1.76 per pound, highest since Oct. 23, 2023, but closed last Friday at $1.75, 7 cents higher on the week and 6.25 cents above a year ago. It has gained 35.75 in five weeks.
The barrels jumped 11 cents last Monday, hitting $1.77 and closed last Friday at $1.7725, up 11.25 cents on the week, highest since Sept. 15, 2023, 18.25 cents above a year ago, and 2.25 cents atop the blocks. Sales totaled three of block and nine barrel.
Central cheesemakers reported "bumps in demand" last week, according to DMN, but it remains to be seen if the shift is a long-term seasonal trend or buyers reacting to price bullishness. Milk availability is "somewhat sideways" and prices at midweek were $3-to $1-under Class III. Some say plant downtime has kept prices this low while others say milk handlers' offers have quieted.
Western cheese output is strong and milk volumes are meeting needs. Domestic demand is moderate to stronger. International demand is steady to lighter.
Grade A nonfat dry milk fell to $1.1025 per pound last Wednesday, lowest CME price since Sept. 12, 2023, but finished last Friday at $1.11, down a penny on the week and 6.50 cents below a year ago. There were 12 sales on the week.
Weaker global prices and bleak demand from Mexico continues to pressure prices, says StoneX, but broker Dave Kurzawski stated in the April 29 "Dairy Radio Now" broadcast that, if CME cheese hovers $1.70-$1.80 per pound, Mozzarella processors might tap into the powder supply to fortify their vats.
Dry whey fell to 37 cents per pound last Wednesday but closed last Friday at 38.25 cents, down a penny on the week but 3 cents above a year ago, on seven sales.
Fluid milk sales topped those of a year ago in February by 2.5%, according to the USDA's latest data, and followed a 2.4% jump in January. However, February 2024 had an extra leap day so the data is a bit skewed.
February packaged sales totaled 3.4 billion pounds, up 2.5% from February 2023. Conventional product sales totaled 3.2 billion pounds, up 2.1%. Organic products, at 235 million pounds, were up 7.8%, and represented 6.8% of total sales for the month.
Whole milk sales totaled 1.2 billion pounds, up 4.8% from a year ago, up 5% on a year to date basis, and represented 35.1% of total sales for the month. Skim milk sales, at 153 million pounds, were down 11.1% from a year ago.
Packaged fluid sales in the first two months of 2024 totaled 7.3 billion pounds, up 2.4% from 2023. Conventional product sales totaled 6.8 billion pounds, up 2.3%. Organic products, at 493 million pounds, were up 3.7%.
China remains on the sidelines regarding dairy imports, which were down 20% in March from a year ago. HighGround Dairy stated, "The third consecutive month of radical import volume declines this calendar year highlights just how light China's demand has been, and most importantly, continues to be. Year-to-date imports are down 14% from last year and 33% below those in 2022.
"To put perspective on this," said HGD. "The quantity lost this year amounts to 337,920 MT, a massive volume, roughly equivalent to the volume of dairy that Australia exported to China the entire year of '22, not to mention 50% more than the same country exported to China in '23. China's demand has reduced so much that it has displaced the volume of one of the top-five global exporters."
Whole milk powder volumes were down 14.5% while skim milk powder was down 32.1%. Cheese imports fell 6.7%, with the majority of the decline from New Zealand, according to HGD, while imports from the U.S. were up 44%.
"CME Cheddar blocks have been at a heavy discount to New Zealand since November 2023," said HGD, "which may help to explain the rise in cheese imports. However, EU cheese prices remain competitive with New Zealand, holding a near 50-cent premium to the U.S. throughout the first three months of the year, suggesting there maybe pockets of demand for EU specific cheese."
Butter imports were down 30.9% and whey products were down 14%.
The IDFA applauded USDA's final rule updating meal patterns for the National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs. "The updated rule preserves the ability for schools across the country to serve nutritious flavored milk to students in all grades as long as the product meets IDFA's Healthy School Milk Commitment guidelines, which ensures an 8-ounce half-pint of non-fat or low-fat flavored milk contains no more than 10 grams of added sugar per serving," said the IDFA, which established the commitment in early 2023 with 37 processors.
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