A federal report recently issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture says rural counties across the country, including Indiana, are losing population at a rapid rate. However, Purdue University experts say deep analysis of Indiana population trends show a slightly different story.
The annual federal report, "Rural America at a Glance," is USDA's account of employment, population and poverty trends in rural counties. The report suggests the lack of suburbanization on the edges of metro areas could factor into population loss. In the past, these areas showed an increasingly speedy rate of suburbanization. Beau Beaulieu, director of the Purdue University Center for Regional Development, said Indiana may not be experiencing as much decline as other states—but rural population decline, he says, is still very present here.
"My sense is that it's not quite parallel to what's happening in some of the other states," Beaulieu said. "The maps are differentiated by the 'type' of county. Some Indiana rural counties are considered metropolitan just because they have a dependence on metro areas for jobs."
In a classification system for counties like the model used by USDA, 25 counties in Indiana in 2013 were considered rural. But in the same year, using more specific data, another classification system showed 43 rural counties. Brigitte Waldorf, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue, agrees with Beaulieu's analysis, but says there is no denying that the vast majority of Indiana counties have lost population from 2015-16—a trend she says is worrisome.
"Take Grant County, for example," Waldorf said. "Since 2010, Grant County lost 4.3 percent of its population, shrinking by about 500 residents every year. This has serious consequences for schools, housing markets, business and the ability to attract firms. A shrinking population also means a shrinking labor force. In many counties, the problem is exacerbated as the population is aging at an above average rate."
Waldorf said loss of population and jobs in these counties can become mutually-reinforcing. Without jobs in commuting distance, rural residents may have no choice but to move to a more urbanized area where jobs are easier to find.
A consequence of job loss may also be the decreasing number of mid-sized farms across the country. While small farms can be close to metro areas that allow a producer or his partner to be a "part-time" farmer and commute to a secondary job, mid-sized farms cannot be as close to metro areas and are more likely to fail without the support of a second income. With a lack of broadband access in rural areas, working from home or corresponding is usually not an option, either. R. Douglas Hurt, head of Purdue's Department of History, said farmers needing secondary jobs is not new.
"Since the mid-20th century, many farm families have relied on off-the-farm employment to keep the farm operations," Hurt said. "If nearby jobs aren't available, some farm men and women will move closer to them, essentially becoming suitcase farmers—that is, farmers who live elsewhere and return to work their land periodically."
But farmers aren't the only long-distance commuters in rural areas.
"Historically, most rural areas lose people, particularly the young, to urban areas where they have better educational and job opportunities," he said. "Many people, however, will drive more than 50 miles one way to take a job in an urban area so they can still live fairly cheaply in a rural area."
Another trend affecting the population of rural America is increased mortality rates of working-age people. The report states:
"Increased mortality among working-age adults is a more recent and unanticipated trend contributing to lower population growth. Between 1999-2001 and 2013-15, rural mortality increased more than 20 percent for 25- to 29-year-olds, from 135 to 165 deaths per 100,000 people."
Beaulieu says the opioid epidemic likely has a part in increasing mortality rates of rural residents.
"One of the big trends happening is the opioid crisis—it's very persistent in many rural places in America," Beaulieu said. "It's hitting the rural labor force big time, partly because there are few opportunities and people feel like they have no career path. I think the situation has really been impactful on mortality, but there's not a simple answer."
All experts agree that, without intervention, rural population will continue to decline. But there are people actively working to solve the problem—many of which are at the Purdue Center for Regional Development.
"We do demographic profiles to help counties make decisions," Beaulieu said. "Sometimes we'll do a workshop, help them understand what this all means. We bring smaller counties together and help them think regionally—you can look at how bad things are in your county, but when you begin to connect with four or five other counties, there are more economic opportunities, and the whole picture changes a little. We try to use economic drivers to attract more people and build on their quality and diversity of jobs."