Net Farm Income to Drop 13% in 2018
Published: Friday, September 21, 2018
According to the net farm income, is forecast to decrease $9.8 billion or 13 percent, from 2017 to $65.7 billion in 2018.
Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $12.4 billion or 12 percent, to $91.5 billion.
Cash receipts for all commodities are forecast to remain nearly stable in 2018 at $374 billion. Both total animal/animal product and total crop receipts are forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2017, as increases in receipts for some commodities are offset by declines in other commodities.
Receipts for milk are expected to decline $2.8 billion or 7.4 percent, in 2018, while receipts for poultry/eggs are expected to increase $5.2 billion, or 12.1 percent.
A forecast 800 million decrease in corn receipts will be partially offset by a forecast 500 million increase in receipts for wheat.
Direct government farm payments are forecast to decline $2 billion to $9.5 billion in 2018, with most of these declines due to lower anticipated Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage program payments.
Total production expenses, including operator dwelling expenses, are forecast up $11.8 billion in nominal terms to $365.9 billion in 2018, led by increases for fuels/oil, interest, feed, and hired labor.
The farm business average net cash farm income is forecast to decline $16,600 to $66,700 in 2018. This would be the fourth consecutive decline since 2014 and the lowest average income recorded since the series began in 2010. All categories of farm businesses are expected to see declines, with dairy farm businesses expected to see the largest decline. Every resource region of the country is forecast to see farm business average net cash farm income decline as well.
Farm sector equity is forecast up by $21.8 billion to $2.62 trillion in 2018. Farm assets are forecast to increase by $35.6 billion to $3 trillion in 2018, reflecting an anticipated 1.8-percent rise in farm sector real estate value.
Farm debt is forecast to increase by $13.8 billion to $406.9 billion, led by an expected 4.4 percent rise in real estate debt. The farm sector debt-to-asset ratio is expected to rise, while the total rate of return to farm assets is expected to decline in 2018.
Return to Top of Page