Last Tuesday at the Midwest Pork Conference in Danville, Ind., Lowell Catlett compared predicting the future to "guessing what's on the other side of the hill." He conceded that that can often be a difficult thing to do.
But the retired ag economist from New Mexico State University and nationally-respected futurist also discussed a number of changes—some mind boggling—that are not so difficult to predict, and are coming soon. He said these changes will have a major impact on the way we live, including agriculture and Rural America. For example:
• The fossil fuel era is coming to a close, and in a few years it will be done.
• Effective this year, the United Kingdom will no longer produce electricity generated by fossil fuels. France will follow suit by 2021.
• The UK and France have also announced that by 2040, internal combustion engines will no longer be sold, for any purpose.
• In Texas, the largest fossil fuel state in the nation, energy giant Luminant recently announced that it will close three of its five coal-generating facilities, with the other two to close soon. The company is moving to wind and solar energy production.
• Lithium ion batteries will continue to improve, and will power vehicles. They can be recharged in a matter of minutes. Battery packs can now be purchased to power homes in the case of power outages.
• Catlett said that for all practical purposes, computer power is infinite. To emphasize his point, he pulled his Galaxy cell phone from his pocket and said at a very tiny fraction of the size, it was 32 million times more powerful than the computer that helped land Apollo astronauts on the moon.
• This computer power will manifest itself in robots, which will increasingly play a role in all aspects of our lives, including manufacturing, fast food restaurants, agriculture and health care.
• In 2020, GM and Ford will begin selling self-driving cars. Self-driving trucks will soon be adopted by the trucking industry.
• Instead of people owning and driving their own vehicles, transportation will increasingly become a service, provided by Uber-like, self-driving vehicles. Already, 14 percent of Millennials aren't bothering to get driver's licenses.
• Medical care will increasingly be provided in the home, with patients able to consult with doctors and specialists by telemedicine.
Catlett said that many of the coming innovations are already on the threshold, and as an example, cited self-driving cars, also known as autonomous driving vehicles. In numerous coast-to-coast trips, the unmanned vehicles had performed in an outstanding manner, with no accidents, and a safety record approaching airline travel. Catlett added that in Germany next year, a trucking company would be adding 2,800 autonomous driving trucks to its fleet.
Catlett told the audience that as a baby boomer who grew up on a Texas Panhandle ranch, he had no intention of giving up driving his pickup truck. He related that in a recent conversation with an expert in the field, he was told that the only thing holding up the widespread rollout of autonomous driving vehicles was insurance. Catlett quoted the individual as saying, "In a world so safe, we're trying to figure out how to insure someone like you."
In agriculture, Catlett said that venture capital was pouring into agricultural robotic innovation at an unprecedented rate, and said that the impact of computer-driven robots will be revolutionary. He said that robotic milkers are already the fastest-growing robotic application in agriculture, and that one computer robot system that was called "Baxter" had the hand sensitivity to be able to be able to rapidly sort ripe and unripe peaches and apples.
He also said robots will have face recognition technology, with the ability to recognize different human and animal emotions. He said that such technology will be a game changer in the way farm animals are handled and moved.
"As a kid growing up on a Texas ranch, my late father always told me, 'Every cow's a little different.' Now we're going to have a computer/robotic system sophisticated enough to be able to recognize those differences and respond accordingly to different animals," he said. "Maybe now a robot will be able to tell us which sows will be OK with a gestation crate, and which ones won't."
Catlett said in Japan, android robots called "Pepper" were having huge success in the fast food industry. The robots are capable of taking orders, and then robots nicknamed "Flippy" flipped the hamburgers and then cooked the french fries. Customers easily prefer the robots to fast food employees.
But perhaps the most notable success to date for the Peppers in Japan was in health care.
"The people in health care in Japan love Pepper," said Catlett. "They've proven far superior in picking patients up out of wheelchairs, helping them go to the restroom, and putting them to bed. And since Peppers are also capable of recognizing human emotions, they're outstanding companions for patients with dementia and early-onset Alzheimer's. They just sit with the patients and talk with them."
Catlett said that in China, Microsoft had developed a robotized face recognition technology for diagnostic purposes. The robots could tell if a patient had one of 2,000 rare diseases, with over 99 percent accuracy, by simply looking at his or her face.
Rural healthcare can potentially benefit tremendously from this technology revolution by helping to make up for the shortage of rural health care providers. In the future, rural residents will be able to access primary providers and specialists from long distance, by telecommunication, often right in their own home.
But there's a catch. These types of innovations in rural America requires two prerequisites: what Catlett referred to as a "smart grid," powered by wind and solar energy, and in case of low wind or sunshine, excess power could be pulled from the energy stored in the batteries of idle cars; and broadband Internet access.
"The worst broadband in the world is in rural America," said Catlett, who encouraged rural leaders to continue to advocate for rural broadband.
But given that science will hopefully find a way to make those conditions happen, Catlett said that while he would be reluctant to give up his pickup, he was nevertheless excited about what the future would bring.
"If I have a choice of being in the hospital, or being in a hospital bed at home, with access to doctors, that's a no-brainer for me," he said. "If I can be at home, with my wife, my two dogs, and my two cats, that's where I want to be."