Abnormally Dry Weather Not Expected to Last
Published: Friday, April 9, 2021
The following is from Jeff Burbrink, Elkhart County Extension educator.
Another month is behind us and it appears the weather will get progressively nicer. Drought conditions persist in the northern part of Indiana and it doesn't look like we'll see much in the way of precipitation until possibly at the end of this week.
The latest April outlook (released March 31) is calling for enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures with no significant guidance on precipitation.
The April-May-June (AMJ) outlook (released March 18) is indicating enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. At this time, there are no indications that this spring will be the cool and wet one of 2019 that delayed planting so much.
The hope is the above-normal precipitation over this AMJ period will help replenish groundwater supplies in the north without oversaturating soils in the south.
Even though temperatures are predicted to be above normal over the next three-month period, last year's Mother's Day freeze event that took place May 9-10 saw temperatures plunge into the upper 20s.
The NOAA climatological spring freeze map, available online at https://bit.ly/3sKOt9W, shows the dates when hard freeze still occurred 10 percent of the time after the date displayed. It's still too early to know what will happen this year, but quick-moving, cold waves can pass through even if the overall month or three-month season finished warmer than normal.
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