Mich. Wheat Reaches for State Yield Record
Published: Friday, July 26, 2024
Some winter wheat growers in Michigan are looking for more storage because of what could be record yields per bushel this year.
USDA is forecasting 89 bushels of winter wheat per acre in the state based on conditions as of July 1.
That would tie the state record set in 2016 for the amount of winter wheat harvested per acre, said Dennis Pennington, a Michigan State University wheat systems specialist at the Saginaw Valley Research and Extension Center.
Pennington said the USDA prediction seems right on the money based on his talks with people at elevators and producers.
"Even growers that normally store in their own bins, they got their bins full and, now, they're looking for storage," he said.
According to USDA, the amount of winter wheat forecast per bushel in Michigan is 6% higher than per acre yields in 2023.
This year's crop is also in much better condition with 75% of the crop as of June 30 rated as good to excellent compared to 25% this time last year.
Pennington estimated about 90% of this year's winter wheat in Michigan was harvested by July 22, a rate 10 days sooner than 2023.
Winter wheat yields and quality last year were hurt by a significant dry spell in June, he said.
In comparison, Pennington said the amount of rainfall this year has been adequate and consistent throughout much of the growing season.
"We've had a good distribution of rainfall by month through the spring and throughout the grain fill period over the early summer which has been ideal for winter wheat," he said.
He also believes yields were helped by fewer days of 90 degree temperatures from late May to early July and more farmers nowadays keeping a closer eye on their fields for a quicker response to potential signs of trouble.
"We had some disease pressure at times but, for the most part, growers were able to manage those," he said.
Pennington said he feels another factor in this year's higher yields and healthier crop was the unusually mild winter keeping damage to winter wheat from melting snow freezing over and drowning the crop to a minimum.
"We had virtually no winter kill," he said.
Ironically, winter wheat production in Michigan is expected to noticeably decline from last year because the 420,000 acres planted is about 22% less than the 10 year average.
Pennington said some farmers in many parts of the state were not able get their winter wheat planted or complete the planting before a period of heavy precipitation in the fall made the soil too wet for placing seed into the ground.
"If you didn't get ahead of the rain in the fall it got late," he said.
Pennington said the increase in the harvested amount per acre, though, could actually be enough to limit the state's loss in winter wheat production to just 5%.
The loss could be even less if yields per acre come in higher than predicted.
"Our total production will be down even though our production per acre is looking to be pretty good," he said.
Michigan ranked 13th in winter wheat production with more than 46 million bushels harvested, according to USDA.
Pennington said much of the winter wheat comes from the area of the state shaped like a thumb while substantially less comes from Berrien County and other parts of southwest Michigan.
The biggest winter wheat producing state is North Dakota, which harvested close to 308 million bushels last year followed by Kansas at more than 200 million bushes, according to USDA.
Pennington said Michigan is usually in the top five states for bushels of winter wheat harvested per acre.
He said the top producing states plant a lot more winter wheat but their yields per acre are not as great.
"They have a lot less rainfall so they're not able to get the kind of yields we get," he said.
According to USDA, Indiana was 19th last year in winter wheat production with just over 30 million bushels harvested.
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