Lower Hog Prices May Be Ahead
Published: Friday, October 11, 2024
The following is from Jason Franken, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri.
The USDA's September Hogs and Pigs report holds few surprises. As expected, the Sept. 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs, at 76.5 million head, is up 1.69% from last quarter and .46% from last year, while the breeding herd is up .6% from last quarter but down 2.2% from a year ago, and market hogs are 1.78% higher than last quarter and .69% higher than last year.
Inventories of market hogs in the under-50-pound class and the 50-119-pound class are down 1.5% and 1.3% relative to last year, while 120-179-pound class and those weighing 180 pounds and up are 3.5% and 4.8% higher. Essentially, trade expectations overestimated the lighter two weight categories and underestimated the larger two, with the largest class being the biggest surprise at 3.2% higher than expected. The abundance of heavier hogs should put downward pressure on near-term prices. However, overall, there's just .2% fewer hogs weighing und
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