Farm Income to Decline 4% in 2024
Published: Friday, December 13, 2024
After reaching record highs in 2022, farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2024 but at a slower rate than in 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, reached $181.9 billion in 2022 in nominal dollars. After decreasing by $35.3 billion (19.4%) from 2022 to $146.7 billion in 2023, net farm income is forecast to decrease $6 billion (4.1%) to $140.7 billion in 2024.
Net cash farm income reached $210.1 billion in 2022. After decreasing by $49.4 billion (23.5%) from 2022 to $160.7 billion in 2023, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $1.8 billion (1.1%) to $158.8 billion in 2024.
In inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $9.5 billion (6.3%) from 2023 to 2024. Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $5.7 billion (3.5%) from 2023 to 2024. If realized, both measures in 2024 would remain above their 2004–23 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars).
Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to de-crease by $4 billion (.8%) from 2023 to $516.9 billion in 2024 in nominal dollars.
Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $25 billion (9.2% from 2023 levels to $246.2 billion following lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Con-versely, total animal/animal product receipts are projected to increase by $21 billion (8.4%) to $270.6 billion in 2024.
Receipts for cattle/calves, eggs, milk, broilers, and hogs are forecast to rise relative to 2023.
Direct government farm payments are forecast at $10.6 billion in 2024, a $1.7-billion (13.6%) decrease from 2023. Direct Gov-ernment farm payments include federal farm program payments paid directly to farmers and ranchers but exclude U.S. Department of Agriculture loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corpo-ration. The forecast decline is largely because of lower Dairy Margin Coverage Program payments and supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers in 2024 compared with 2023.
Total production expens-es, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to decrease by $8 billion (1.7%) from 2023 to $453.9 billion in 2024. Spending on feed is expected to see the largest decline in 2024 while livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest dollar increase relative to 2023.
Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 5.2% ($181.9 billion) from 2023 to $3.68 trillion in 2024 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 5.1% ($205.4 billion) to $4.22 trillion in 2024 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets.
Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 4.5% ($23.5 billion) to $542.5 billion in 2024. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to improve modestly from 12.93% in 2023 to 12.86% in 2024. Working capital is forecast to fall 6.9% in 2024 relative to 2023.
Total inflation-adjusted cash receipts are forecast to fall $16.6 billion (3.1%) from 2023 to $516.9 billion in 2024. Crop cash receipts are projected to decline $31.6 billion (11.4%) during the year, although animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to increase by $15 billion (5.9%).
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