Tom Urges Farmers to Trust Trump
Published: Friday, December 20, 2024
If the threat of tariffs is worrying farmers, Kip Tom has a simple message for them: Trust Trump.
Tom, who hails from Leesburg, is one of President-elect Donald Trump's primary representatives on agriculture policy. Last Friday, he was the keynote speaker at an Indiana Farm Bureau's luncheon in French Lick.
Having served as co-chair of Farmers and Ranchers for Trump '47 Committee, Kip Tom has Trump's ear when it comes to agriculture policy. During the first Trump administration, Tom also served as the U.S. ambassador to the UN food and agriculture agencies. He also is the CEO of Tom Farms.
Last Friday, Tom addressed a wide variety of topics ranging from tariffs and trade to China's growing influence, Trump's nominee for USDA secretary, and food insecurity.
During Trump's first term, his negotiators reached a Phase 1 trade deal with China. Tom said U.S. farmers can expect to see Phase 2 and Phase 3 agreements and agreements with other nations.
"I'm confident we'll have deals going on with Argentina, Southeast Asia, maybe it's Vietnam, and obviously the Mexican-Canadian agreement," he said.
It's understood that imposing tariffs could ignite a trade war and cause commodity prices to fall. Tom said even though farmers may be uneasy about the road ahead, ". . . all I can do is communicate to them, 'Believe in President Trump and believe in his choices in the folks at the USTR (U.S. Trade Representative) that we will have trade deals come along.'"
He pointed out that the U.S. hasn't negotiated any new trade deals under President Biden.
During his speech to Farm Bureau members, Tom outlined the changing dynamics of agricultural trade.
The U.S. historically has enjoyed a surplus in agricultural trade. However, in the last three years, that surplus has turned into a deficit. For the 2025 fiscal year, the U.S. ag trade deficit is expected to reach $42.5 billion, up from a $30.5 billion deficit projected for FY24.
The strong dollar is one factor for the decline, but another reason is the changing geopolitical landscape that Tom described in his speech. China, one of the U.S.'s longtime customers, is turning to Brazil and other ag producers for its supply of food and agricultural products. Tom said China's goal is to be self-sufficient within 10 years.
Regarding tariffs, Tom said Trump isn't going to turn his back on farmers, who overwhelmingly supported him during his recent campaign for president.
"First of all, President Trump realizes who got him elected," Tom said. "It was rural America that played a big role in all of that. But most importantly, he understands how important trade is. Nearly 35-40% of our total output goes beyond the borders of the United States.
"He also knows that, right now, there is a lot of imbalance around the world. We have nearly a $270 billion trade deficit with China today, so those are points of leverage for us."
China and Brazil are part of the nine-nation BRIC alliance that also includes Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. Tom said these nations do not use the U.S. dollar and instead use their own currency.
Tom said China wants to supplant the U.S. as the world's dominant ag exporter. China is working with Brazil to build a trans-continental railroad that would carry Brazil's soybeans and agricultural products to a deep-water port on Peru's coastline. This investment would cut the travel time for Chinese ships carrying cargo back to Asia.
Tom pointed out that China recently purchased Brazilian soybeans even though U.S. beans were less expensive.
By applying tariffs to Chinese imports, Trump hopes China will reconsider its position and buy more U.S. goods.
"Trump goes to bed at night dreaming about a deal," Tom said. "He doesn't go to bed dreaming about tariffs."
Looking ahead, the former ambassador said the U.S. should focus on upgrading our transportation infrastructure, particularly our ports and waterway systems. Another focus should be on innovation, such as value-added ag products like sustainable aviation fuel.
Tom was among the names mentioned as a candidate for agriculture secretary. Trump ultimately nominated Brooke Rollins, who served as director of the Office of American Innovation during Trump's first administration. More recently, she has worked as director of the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank.
Tom said he has known Rollins for two years and said she is well qualified for the position. She grew up on a Texas farm and served as a state FFA officer. She graduated from Texas A&M University with a degree in agricultural development. She earned her a law degree from the University of Texas.
Among her priorities at USDA, Rollins will work to reform the SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program).
Trump's nominee for the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has generated controversy over his statements regarding the U.S. food system. Back in 2002, Kennedy said that hog farmers were a greater threat to democracy than Osama Bin Laden. Years later, Kennedy said that he stands by his original statement, but Tom said he doesn't share that opinion. He expects Rollins to sit down with Kennedy to explain the farmer's perspective.
The theme of the luncheon was "Food security is national security." Tom pointed out that food is essential to a nation's prosperity. He once again mentioned China as a threat, saying that our supply chain depends on sourcing crop care products and animal vaccines from that nation. If China were to limit shipments, it would cause the U.S. to become food insecure.
He said the U.S. needs to develop a food supply chain that is based here.
"We need to bring back the supply chain: fertilizer from Russia, pesticides from China," he said. "We've got to bring it back home."
Rebuilding the U.S. supply chain will require a large investment from U.S. companies, Tom said, but one barrier is cost. He said it is less expensive to manufacture those products in China.
Regarding his future, Tom said he is available to serve, if asked.
"I believe in President Trump," he said. "I also believe in our nation, and I believe in our industry. It's a time of my life where I want to be engaged."
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