June Milk Production Soars over Last Year's Output
Published: Friday, August 1, 2025
The following is from Lee Mielke, author of a dairy market column known as "Mielke Market Weekly."
Set against milk output that was down 1.7% last year from June 2023 due to avian influenza, June 2025 production soared to 19.2 billion pounds, up 3.3% from a year ago. It was the biggest monthly increase since May 2021 and the sixth consecutive month that output topped a year ago as cow numbers and output per cow grew. The 24-state output, at 18.5 billion pounds, was up 3.4%.
May production in the 50 states was revised up 142 million pounds, resulting in a 2.3% gain instead of the originally reported 1.6% jump. The 24-state total was revised up 136 million pounds, up 2.4%, instead of 1.7%.
Cow numbers totaled 9.469 million, up 4,000 head from May, and 146,000, or 1.6%, more than a year ago. It is the largest dairy herd since July 2021. The May count was revised up 20,000 head. The 24-state count, at 9.029 million, was up 3,000 from May and 151,000, or 1.7%, above a year ago. The May count was revised, up 22,000 head.
Adding to the bearish data, components in milk were also up, lifting component adjusted production to plus 5% from last year, according to StoneX.
Output for the April to June quarter totaled 58.7 billion pounds, up 2.4% from a year ago. Milk cows numbered 9.46 million head, up 56,000 from the January to March quarter, and 127,000 more than the same period a year ago.
Recovery from bird flu came to California where output was up 91 million pounds, or 2.7%, from a year ago when it had dropped 2.1%. This was the state's first gain in nine months, thanks to 3,000 more cows and 50 pounds more per cow. Wisconsin output was up 9 million pounds, or .3%, despite a 5,000 cow drop, as output per cow was up 15 pounds from a year ago.
Michigan was up 4.8% on 17,000 more cows and a 20-pound gain per cow. Minnesota was up 1.3%, on a 30-pound gain per cow offsetting the loss of 1,000 cows.
The increased cow numbers was "significant," said HighGround Dairy's Curtis Bosma in the July 28 Dairy Radio Now broadcast. He said there's a lot of talk about heat stress right now but we're seeing a lot of changes in the dairy herd.
Cull rates are down, people are holding cows longer to get that extra lactation, and beef on dairy plays into the strategy. Cattle near the end of their productive milk lifecycle, the thinking is to get one more calf out of them, he said, considering what they're worth today. It's a significant amount of revenue.
Bosma expects "moderate growth" to continue. "When you look at replacement values and how tight the heifer inventory has been, there was a lot of doubt that dairy producers could really step on the gas with additional milk but this shows us there's been a lot of planned expansion and with the new capacity coming on line, we're seeing the milk there as well," he concluded.
The USDA's latest weekly slaughter report showed 49,400 dairy cows were sent to slaughter the week ending July 12, up 9,200 from the previous week, but down 3,100, or 5.9%, from a year ago. Year to date, 1,377,500 head had been culled, down 103,900 head, or 7%, from a year ago.
Above average temperatures and high humidity hit much of the U.S. last week. That could show up in July milk production and impact crops in the fields.
June dairy imports into China tell a story. Whole milk and skim milk powder imports, at 83.3 million and 37.5 million pounds, respectively, were both up 10.3% from June 2024 on a daily average basis.
Whey product imports totaled 89.9 million pounds, down 26.6%, "Amidst a tense trade war with the U.S.," said HighGround Dairy. "Whey imports dropped to the lowest monthly volume on a 30-day adjusted basis since February 2024 and the smallest June volume since 2019."
HighGround says 40.2 million pounds, or 61% less whey, came from the U.S., "tanking U.S. market share from 54% to 28%." "Although a trade truce was agreed upon in June, U.S. whey imports will continue to face a 35% tariff rate into China," said HGD. To avoid this levy, more buyers are turning to Europe, with shipments most notable from the Netherlands, Belarus, Germany and Poland.
Germany has overtaken the U.S. as the top origination country for whey protein concentrate 80% imports, with 46% market share, according to HGD, while the U.S. has fallen to just 17% market share from 32% in June 2024. "China has been the top destination for U.S. whey and whey derivative exports. However, the current trade dispute is shifting this dynamic, driving more Chinese buyers to diversify their supply lines, ultimately changing the global whey trade."
Butter imports totaled 19.3 million pounds, down 17.4%, and cheese amounted to 34.7 million, down 2.8%. HighGround said, "Cheese imports have trended above prior year levels for the past four consecutive months but fell in June after marking a record high May. Shipments from New Zealand continue to grow."
As we await trade agreements with the EU, South Korea, China and others, the U.S. and Japan reached agreement last week, as did Indonesia. The National Milk Producers Federation applauded the agreement with Indonesia, which will "Eliminate tariffs on the vast majority of U.S. exports and contains pledges to remove longstanding nontariff barriers affecting American dairy products."
Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF, said, "This looks like it will be a significant win for U.S. dairy. We commend the Trump administration for securing an agreement that should deliver real benefits for our dairy farmers. We are pleased to hear this framework removes roadblocks to trade and will help grow dairy sales in one of the world's most populous markets."
The announcement also drew praise from the International Dairy Foods Assn. which stated, "Indonesia is the second largest market for U.S. dairy exports in Southeast Asia and the seventh largest market globally. U.S. dairy exports to Indonesia reached almost $247 million in 2024, according to the IDFA.
CME Cheddar held at last Friday's close for three days in a row, then inched up a quarter-cent last Thursday, and gave back a half-cent Friday, closing at $1.64 per pound. That's down a quarter-cent on the week, third week of loss, and 29 cents below a year ago, as traders absorbed the June milk production data and awaited last Friday afternoon's June Cold Storage report.
The barrels finished at $1.6250, down 3.50 cents on the week, and 34.50 cents below a year ago. There were nine CME sales of block on the week and seven of barrel.
Milk output is steady to lighter in the Central region, reports Dairy Market News. High temperatures in the southern portion continue to have a negative impact on milk output while the Midwest reports mild weather kept production steady. Spot loads were becoming more difficult to find in most of the region, but downtime at nearby facilities was keeping milk available at below class prices. Cheese production is steady. Retail and food service demand is light, exports are strong.
Class III milk is keeping up with demand from cheese manufacturers in the West and demand is steady. Spot availability was "looser" in parts of the region last week due to production downtime for commodities other than cheese at some facilities. A few cheese manufacturers convey tight stocks of varietal cheeses for third quarter but many cheesemakers and distributors say spots loads are widely available. Domestic cheese demand is steady to light, international demand is steady to strong, according to DMN.
Cash butter fell to $2.42 per pound last Tuesday, lowest since May 22, but rallied last Friday to a $2.4650 finish, 4.75 cents lower on the week, and 62.50 cents below a year ago. There were 14 loads that found new homes on the week.
Central region milk production and component levels are declining week-to-week, but remain above a year ago, says DMN. Cream is tightening but spot availability remains sufficient for ice cream and butter makers. Churning is active and some is being frozen for use later in the year. Food service demand is light and retail sales are softening. International prices remain high compared to the U.S. levels.
Western butter manufacturers say cream is somewhat tighter. Some handlers note fat components in milk are declining. Cream multiples mid-week were rising. Butter production is steady to lighter. Some manufacturers are purchasing less spot cream than they were in earlier weeks. In a few cases, production was lighter as producers replaced equipment. Domestic butter demand is steady to lighter. A few domestic buyers were offered loads initially intended for international buyers, but export demand is generally strong, says DMN.
Grade A nonfat dry milk climbed to $1.3025 per pound last Wednesday, highest CME price since Feb. 10, but it closed last Friday at $1.2875, a quarter-cent lower on the week, but 5.50 cents above a year ago on 21 sales.
Last Tuesday's Milk Production report showing a rebound in milk output in California no doubt portends extra powder ahead in the nation's largest powder producer.
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