Soy Exports Key to Crop Outlook
Published: Friday, January 23, 2026
Crop producers can expect slightly higher corn prices this year but still below the breakeven level. The outlook for soybean prices depends on whether China will follow through with its commitment to buy 25 million metric tons from the U.S.
"If the exports to China go back to 25 million metric tons, that would be close to the long-run average," said Michael Langemeier. "We could have 84 or 85 million acres of soybeans again."
Langemeier, a Purdue University agricultural economist, shared his 2026 crop market outlook last Wednesday at the Fort Wayne Farm Show.
U.S. farmers grew only 81 million acres of soybeans in 2025. That's the fewest acres since 2007. Many switched soybean acres to corn due to trade tensions between Washington and Beijing over soybean tariffs. U.S. production was down 2.5% last year.
Yields were 53 bushels per acre, above the long-run trend. Indiana had an average yield of 59.5 bushels per acre, while Michigan reported an average yield of 48.5 bushels per acre.
Langemeier said the U.S. has been selling soybeans to other countries, but he added that those sales can't replace China. Before the trade war, China purchased roughly 25 million metric tons per year.
China didn't buy any U.S. soybeans in 2025 until very late in the year. Overall, U.S. soybean exports were down 16%.
The soybean crush is up substantially, driven by strong demand for soybean oil. Prices for soybean meal will be a bargain this year, he added, boding well for livestock producers.
According to Langemeier's 2026 outlook, soybean prices should average $10.20 per bushel. That's a little higher than last year but still "way below breakeven," he said.
For corn, 2025 saw a record crop of 17 billion bushels and the most corn acres (99 million) since 1936. That represents a 14% increase over 2024.
Last Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) that showed record corn crops in both Indiana and Michigan, along with several other states, including Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska. Iowa and Illinois were close to records.
"Corn production (was) just essentially off the charts," Langemeier said. "We thought 15 billion was a pretty big crop, and this year we're at 17 billion. The previous record was 15.3 billion in 2023."
The report surpassed industry expectations. Market observers were expecting the corn crop to be in the neighborhood of 16.3 to 16.7 billion bushels. But it came out a half-bushel higher.
"That's why the market responded so strongly," he said.
The U.S. saw an average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre. That's about four or five bushels per acre over the trend line.
Indiana reported 204 bushels per acre, while Michigan saw 178 bushels per acre.
The current price is around $4.10 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
"If we didn't have demand as strong as it was, the U.S. price could be south of $3.50," he added.
Driving the demand is ethanol, livestock feed and exports, which are up 12% over 2024.
"As long as ethanol persists, we will need about 15 billion bushels of corn in the U.S., because a lot of the corn is for domestic use," he said.
Corn prices are expected to see a slight increase this year, averaging between $4.25 and $4.50 per bushel, according to Langemeier.
According to the Purdue economist, the current price scenario looks similar to the 2014-19 situation.
While prices are similar, Langemeier said the difference now is that breakeven prices are much higher. There was a wider margin a decade ago. Congress recently approved bridge payments to farmers, but farm groups say more will be needed to cover the negative margins in crop production.
"We are looking at some very low net returns, even compared to what we saw in 2014-19," Langemeier said.
The uncertainty in the soybean market is likely to fuel another strong year of corn acreage, Langemeier said, reaching 94 million to 96 million acres.
Langemeier shared price projections from the I-Farm Price Distribution Tool at the University of Illinois.
The outlook breaks down 2026 December corn futures prices as follows: 25% chance at $4.07 per bushel, 50% chance at $4.56 per bushel and 75% chance at $5.10 per bushel. These prices should be adjusted for local basis, he said.
For soybeans, the 2026 prices are as follows: 25% chance at $9.73 per bushel, 50% chance at $10.61 per bushel and 75% chance at $11.58 per bushel. The cash price at local elevators would be around 30 cents lower, he said.
"There is a chance for some really low prices there," he said. "That's the scenario if South America has big crops and the U.S. has big crops."
A drought in either North or South America could drive prices to the higher end of that range, he said.
Overall, he advised producers to expect corn prices to average between $4.25 and $4.50 per bushel. Soybean prices will average around $10.50 per bushel.
As for net returns, Langemeier said the breakeven price for rotation corn is $5.34 per bushel and $12.47 per bushel for rotation soybeans. He said the market is encouraging producers to plant a mix of corn and soybeans.
"Indiana is actually telling us to do what you've been doing for the last several years, with a 50-50 rotation," he said.
Net farm income was $77 per acre in 2025 and minus $1 per acre this year.
Government payments, including the bridge payments, are responsible for boosting 2025 farm income, but Langemeier isn't sure about 2026.
"Maybe we'll see bigger government payments in 2026," he said. "I don't know, but all of us would like to see our returns coming from the market rather than the government."
Langemeier said this period of low margins is likely to continue for another five to six years.
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