Benchmark Milk Price Is Nearly $6 Below a Year Ago
Published: Friday, February 13, 2026
Lawmakers averted another government shutdown by approving a spending bill that passed the Senate after President Trump agreed to Democrat demands for restraint on immigration enforcement. It narrowly passed the House.
The Agriculture Department announced the first Class III milk price of 2026 at $14.59 per hundredweight, down $1.27 from December, $5.75 below January 2025, and the lowest Class III price since July 2023s $13.77. Last Friday morning futures had the February price at $15.38; March, $17.13; April, $17.25; May, $17.40; and June, $17.55, with the peak at $18 in November.
The Class IV price is $13.55, down 9 cents from December, $7.18 below a year ago, and the lowest Class IV since February 2021's $13.19.
You'll recall December milk was up 4.4% from a year ago. Milk components kept rising as well, leaving plenty for the Dairy Products report to detail. Cheese output totaled 1.279 billion pounds, up 4.4% from November, and up 6.7% from December 2024. Output for all of 2025 totaled 14.7 billion pounds, up 2.9% from 2024.
Wisconsin provided 315 million pounds of the December total, up 6.6% from November, and 2.8% above December 2024. California contributed 216.6 million, up 4.1% from November, and 5.8% more than a year ago. Idaho vats produced 88.2 million pounds, up 4% from November, but down 4.4% from a year ago.
Mozzarella production totaled 440.6 million pounds, up 5.9% from a year ago, with output for the year hitting 4.9 billion pounds, up 2.9% from 2024.
American cheese, at 500.2 million pounds, was up 5.7% from November, and up 6.8% from a year ago. American output for 2025 hit 5.8 billion pounds, up 4%.
Italian-style cheeses totaled 561 million pounds, down 5.2% from November, and up 7.4% from a year ago, with 6.3 billion pounds for the year, up 3.7%.
Cheddar output jumped to 340.4 million pounds, up 18.1 million, or 5.6%, from November's level, which was revised up 2.6 million pounds from last month's report, and was up a whopping 28.1 million pounds, or 9%, from a year ago. Cheddar output for all of 2025 hit 3.98 billion pounds, up 5.3% from 2024.
Butter production climbed to 203.8 million pounds, up 26.6 million pounds, or 15%, from November's level, which was revised up 2.6 million pounds. Output was up 4 million pounds, or 2%, from a year ago, and output for all of 2025 came to 2.4 billion pounds, up 5.7% from 2024.
Yogurt production totaled 401 million pounds, up 6.5% from a year ago, with output for the year hitting 5.3 billion pounds, up 7.6%.
Hard ice cream, at 48.9 million pounds, was down 5.4% from 2024. Production for the year totaled 720.5 million pounds, down 2.2% from a year ago.
Dry whey production climbed to 69.8 million pounds, up 5.7 million pounds, or 9%, from November, and up 800,000 pounds, or 1.2%, from a year ago. Output for the year hit 828.7 million pounds, down 2.9% from a year ago. Whey stocks grew to 59.1 million pounds, up 4.5 million, or 8.3%, from November, but were down 1.1 million pounds, or 1.7%, from a year ago.
Nonfat dry milk output jumped to 127.2 million pounds, up 19.2 million pounds, or 17.7%, from November, but was down 3.5 million, or 2.7%, from a year ago. NFDM for the year totaled 1.7 billion pounds, down .9% from 2024. December stocks climbed to 214 million pounds, up 15 million, or 7.5%, from November, and up 11.5 million pounds, or 5.6%, from 2024.
Skim milk powder production crept to 43.1 million pounds, up 2.6 million pounds, or 6.4%, from November, but was down 7.7 million, or 15.2%, from a year ago. Output for the year totaled 488.3 million pounds, down 18.5% from 2024.
The Feb. 5 Daily Dairy Report stated, "The whey complex was up to its old tricks as the raw whey stream continued to be increasingly routed toward higher-value products. Production of whey protein isolates rose 11.7% to 20.644 million pounds while dry whey production grew just 4%. Whey protein concentrate production continued to skew toward higher protein products."
StoneX Dairy Group stated, "We've estimated that the market is taking on 69.5 million pounds of extra cheese per month due to the increased production capacity at this point. However, exports and domestic consumption have put in a lot of work to eat through this glut of product. It appears to be more in balance than the market was expecting at this time."
Another drop in the All Milk Price and higher prices for corn and hay pulled the December feed price ratio lower for the third month in a row. USDA's Ag Prices report showed December at 2.26, down from 2.38 in November, and compares to 2.73 in December 2024.
The All Milk Price dropped to $19 per hundredweight with a 4.51% butterfat test, down 70 cents from November's $19.70 on a 4.46% test. It was the lowest level of 2025 and $4.30 below a year ago, which had a 4.46% butterfat test.
The national corn price averaged $4.10 per bushel, up 12 cents from November, which followed a nickel rise last month, but is still 13 cents below December 2024. Soybeans averaged $10.40 per bushel, down a dime from November, and follows a 79 cent jump last month, but are 61 cents above a year ago. Alfalfa hay averaged $161 per ton, down $2 from November, and $3 below a year ago.
The November average cull price for beef and dairy combined fell to $157 per hundredweight, down $2 from October, after losing $3 the month before. It was still $38 above December 2024, and $85.40 above the 2011 base average.
Quarterly milk cow replacements averaged $2,860 per head in January, down $250 from October, but $200 above January 2025. Cows averaged $2,800 per head in California, down $200 from October but $200 above a year ago. Wisconsin's average, at $3,170 per head, was down $190 from October but $310 above January 2025.
Milk production margins decreased for the fourth month in a row to the lowest level since January 2024's $9.74 per hundredweight, with an 84 cent per hundredweight loss from November to $10.58 per hundredweight, according to dairy economist Bill Brooks, of Stoneheart Consulting in Dearborn, Mo.
He adds, "Income over feed costs in December were above the $8 per hundredweight level needed for steady to higher milk production for the 26th month in a row. Input prices were mostly higher in December with two of the three input commodities inside of the top 10 for December all-time. Feed costs were the 11th highest ever for December and increased 14 cents per hundredweight, from November."
Milk income over feed costs for 2025 were $12.44 per hundredweight, a loss of 2 cents from the previous estimate, and income over feed would be above the level needed to maintain or grow milk production, and down 96 cents per hundredweight from 2024's level.
Milk income over feed costs for 2026 (using Jan. 30 CME settling futures prices for Class III milk, corn and soybeans plus the Stoneheart forecast for alfalfa hay) are expected to be $10.14 per hundredweight, says Brooks, a loss of $2.30 per hundredweight versus 2025. Income over feed costs would also be above the level needed to maintain or grow milk production, and up 50 cents per hundredweight versus the previous estimate.
The latest Margin Watch from Chicago-based Commodity and Ingredient Hedging LLC said, "Dairy margins strengthened over the second half of January as higher milk prices more than offset a slight rise in feed costs."
Return to Top of Page