Beef-on-Dairy Is Still Going Strong
Published: Friday, March 13, 2026
Beef-on-dairy crosses were the highlight of the livestock and poultry luncheon during the U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va. on Feb. 20.
Anthony Fischer, a livestock analyst and USDA agricultural economist; Amy Smith, vice president of Advanced Economic Solutions; and Ben Laine, dairy analyst with Terrain, were featured in the outlook discussion earlier in the day, and Charley Martinez, director of the University of Tennessee Center of Farm Management, gave the keynote speech during the luncheon.
Martinez said evidence of farmers selling beef-on-dairy can be found going back several decades, despite only recently taking off as an industry trend. Since 2022, when the uptick in beef-on-dairy began, a new supply chain has erupted for cattlemen across the U.S.
According to Martinez, there was an estimated 5.4 million beef-on-dairy cattle produced in 2025. That's compared to 2016's approximate 2.8 million. Beef-on-dairy replacements averaged around 13% in 2016 and 26% in 2025.
"The beef industry should say 'thank you' to the dairy supply. Beef-on-dairy is keeping the beef supply elevated," Martinez said. "Beef-on-dairy has increased since 2016. It's not going anywhere."
He expects the trend will remain steady or even increase this year.
This has affected both the dairy and beef industries, Martinez said. On the dairy side, farmers are keeping their cows for longer, slowing the pace of replacement heifers and cutting into milk production. Dairy semen sales have also decreased since 2017, with a new type of beef semen sales picking up in 2023. Martinez said this is a result of genotyping bulls to maximize the dairy herd.
However, due to a lack of USDA data on beef-on-dairy cattle, the new market is hard to track, Martinez said. He expects this to change as beef-on-dairy finds its footing. Currently, all data concerning beef-on-dairy production is based on estimates made by examining semen sales. Martinez called for analysis of the beef-on-dairy market to provide accurate information for farmers in the future.
According to Fischer, livestock and poultry prices will remain mostly steady in 2026. Beef prices were the exception, with cattle remaining on the feedlot for longer due to beef-on-dairy trends, a slow recovery is expected for the industry. However, he noted that consumers seem to be willing to pay the price for beef, which is at its highest since 2024.
In hogs, Fischer noted that farrowing has increased, so a market increase is also expected.
Broiler chicken prices have declined as of the second half of 2025, but he said weekly national prices "remain competitive." He noted a decline in turkeys but expects an increase as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) recovery continues.
However, "production has steadily been declining over time," he noted.
While HPAI has impacted egg prices, they have "resumed their position as the cheapest protein," Fischer said. He also noted an uptick in layers since June, and egg and poultry prices have returned to their five-year average.
In dairy, Fischer said milk demand is stimulated, and milk output is continuing to grow per cow. He expects milk prices to increase through 2028 with a lower average cost, butter to stabilize in 2026 and nonfat milk and whey exports to drag. Class 3 and 4 milk prices are projected to remain "strong but under pressure."
Smith noted that much of the market stability is due to a priority shift among consumers. The latest trend, expounded upon by the latest dietary guidelines, is to prioritize protein. She noted that protein is being marketed on everything from energy bars to fast-food options and even Pop-tarts.
"It's the highest protein supply environment we've seen in decades," she said.
This is good news for the dairy market, according to Laine, who noted a shift in consumer snacking, which now prioritizes several dairy products, including yogurt and cheeses. In fact, the top three snacks nation-wide contain dairy.
"Dairy's in a pretty good spot right now," he said.
However, it could prove to be a sticking point for the dairy industry, Laine said. Over the past couple of years, the demand has flipped in terms of dairy components, which have been prioritizing fats for domestic use. Laine warned that volatility as the genetics lag behind demand shift is unavoidable.
Smith also noted that consumers are in what Smith deems as a "K-shaped" economy, where the top 10% are doing 50% of the spending.
According to Smith, protein is "a market waiting for supply to catch up."
This take is due to a lack of meat substitution, as has happened in the past. However, Smith said that while chicken purchases have increased, beef demand is still holding, indicating an overall growth to the protein market.
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