Higher Oil Prices Are Here to Stay
Published: Friday, April 10, 2026
It may be a surprise that last year's biggest ag story—tariffs—was swept off today's front pages by even bigger news: a Middle East war, its sharply higher fuel and fertilizer prices, and the near certainty of another multi-billion-dollar farm aid package.
Then again, it's not too much of a surprise because this White House rarely pauses to reflect and fix its problems; it often deflects and creates new ones.
But tariffs haven't gone away. In February, President Donald J. Trump announced a blanket, 10% tariff on almost all U.S. trading partners after the Supreme Court ruled his 2025 tariff efforts illegal.
That action perpetuates the indecipherable mess that is U.S. trade policy today. The Peterson Institute for International Economics recently noted that "As of March 2026, average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are heavily elevated, covering nearly all imports with an average rate around 47.5%." What, it's not 10%?
The rough treatment hasn't gone unnoticed in Beijing. On March 30, China announced it was "opening up two investigations into U.S. trade practices, setting the stage for a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in May."
The war, which delayed the Trump-Xi summit once, may delay it again. Daily reports—often sunny from the White House, usually much darker from Iran—offer no clear insight.
What we do know is that today's American "excursion" into the centuries-old conflicts of the Middle East is proving again that the best U.S. policy toward the blood-soaked region is simply to stay out of it.
Regardless of how or when the hostilities end, today's higher crude oil prices—and their market disruptions—are here to stay, Jason Bordoff, a co-founding dean of Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, explained to the New York Times' Ezra Klein recently.
For example, Bordoff noted, the damage caused by recent Iranian drone strikes on Qatar's energy infrastructure means that "The Qataris are already saying it will take three to five years to repair the damage."
And, "If you do that to the many other facilities in the region, the consequences are going to last much, much longer."
According to Bordoff, 20% of the world's daily oil supply flows through the mostly blockaded Strait of Hormuz. "Workarounds,"—Russian oil now sold legally on world markets, Saudi oil flowing through other ports, some tankers permitted to travel through the strait—have cut that number to around "10%."
Even at that, however, he explains, 10% is a huge amount for a world addicted to carbon. "During the Arab oil embargo in 1973, by contrast ... about 6 or 7% of world supply was disrupted. So this is by far the largest energy supply disruption we have ever seen."
Some of us old, farm graybeards remember that 1970s embargo. Overnight, diesel costs tripled and fertilizer and crop chemical costs doubled. What I don't remember are those costs falling.
On March 30, Bloomberg reported that in "conversations with more than three dozen oil and gas traders, executives, brokers, shippers and advisors ... one message was repeated over and over: The world still hasn't grasped the severity of the situation."
That means, it noted, "U.S. government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider ... prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel."
One reason for the Iran "excursion," its U.S. supporters repeat, is that after 47 years of autocratic rule in Iran, "Something had to be done."
Maybe, but it also means we had 47 years to reduce our crippling dependency on fossil fuels and the Middle East and we did even less on that front.
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