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Milk Production Jumps for the 14th Straight Month


The following is from Lee Mielke, author of a dairy market column known as "Mielke Market Weekly."

Published: Friday, June 5, 2026

Happy June Dairy Month. Thankfully, it looks like June will remain Dairy Month for a long time as a continually growing dairy herd and increasing milk per cow kept U.S. milk production above a year ago for the 14th consecutive month.

The Agriculture Department's latest data put April output at 19.960 billion pounds, up 2.7% from April 2025, and followed a 2.7% rise in March. The 24-state total came in at 19.176 billion pounds, up 2.8%.

March output in the 50 states was revised up 71 million pounds to 20.462 billion, up 2.7% from a year ago, instead of the 2.3% originally reported. The 24-state total was revised up 71 million pounds, to 19.662 billion, up 2.8% instead of the 2.4% originally reported.

April cow numbers totaled 9.645 million head, up 10,000 from the March count, which was revised up 14,000 head, and was up 190,000, or 2%, above a year ago. The 24-state count, at 9.210 million, was up 12,000 from the March total, which was revised up 15,000 head, and was 193,000, or 2.1%, above a year ago. The U.S. dairy herd is the largest since mid-1993, says the Daily Dairy Report.

April milk per cow averaged 2,069 pounds in the 50 states, up 14 pounds, or .7%, from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,082 pounds, was up 13 pounds, or .6%, from 2025. The March average was revised up 5 pounds in both.

California milk output was just under 3.6 billion pounds, up a whopping 79 million pounds, or 2.3%, from a year ago, following a 1.8% gain in March. Cow numbers were up 5,000 head and output per cow was up 40 pounds from a year ago.

Wisconsin produced just under 2.8 billion pounds, also up 79 million, up 2.9% from a year ago, which followed a 3.2% gain in March. Cow numbers were up 31,000 head, with a 10-pound gain per cow. Idaho was up 45 million pounds, or 3%, on 23,000 more cows. Output per cow was off 5 pounds. Indiana was up 5.6%, thanks to 10,000 more cows, and a 5-pound gain per cow. Kansas again recorded the biggest percentage gain, up 23.7% from a year ago, on 44,000 more cows and a 20-pound gain per cow. Michigan was up 4.1% on 19,000 more cows.

StoneX says there is still available capacity at some of the new plants that have been built in the U.S., and there are likely still new farms or existing farm expansions that will be coming online during 2026 to fill those plants.

"Production per cow is slowing down, with seasonal declines in fat and protein content and tougher year-on-year comparisons," said StoneX. "Producers have been adjusting feed rations for some time now to lower input costs against the weaker milkfat prices. Protein was up 3.4% which is being incentivized by strong whey and nonfat dry milk prices. This put component-adjusted milk production up 3.4%, which helps explain the downtrend in Class III," according to StoneX.

The USDA's latest weekly slaughter report showed 44,500 dairy cows sent to slaughter the week ending May 16, down 300, or .7%, from a year ago. Year to date 1,072,600 had been culled, up 54,200 head, or 5.3%, from a year ago.

Meanwhile, we have plenty of dairy in the cooler. U.S. butter stocks jumped in April, as they did in March, but were still well below a year ago, thanks to good domestic demand and strong exports.

The Agriculture Department's latest Cold Storage report shows April butter stocks at 308.2 million pounds, up 18.3 million pounds, or 6.3%, from March, but 28.8 million, or 8.5%, below April 2025. The March total was revised up 1.1 million pounds from last month's report.

American-type cheese stocks grew to 817.6 million pounds, up 12 million, or 1.5%, from the March level, which was revised up 3.9 million pounds. But, they were down 11.9 million pounds, or 1.4%, from a year ago.

The "other" cheese holdings totaled 575.2 million pounds, up 243,000 pounds, or .04%, from March, but were down 3.4 million, or .6%, from a year ago. The March total was unchanged.

The total cheese inventory hit 1.418 billion pounds, up 12.4 million, or .9%, from March, but still 13.4 million pounds, or .9%, below a year ago. Revisions added 3.9 million pounds to the March total.

StoneX said, "The higher milk production appeared to have helped build inventories." The May 22 Daily Dairy Report warned, "The steep increase in American-style cheese stocks in both March and April suggests that, while exports are helping to clean up supplies of other cheese varieties, international buyers are not interested in U.S. Cheddar. If American-style cheese continues to pile up, some will wind up in Chicago and weigh on the CME spot price."

Speaking of CME Cheddar, the 40-pound blocks closed the holiday-shortened week at $1.4750 per pound, down 3 cents on the week, lowest since Feb. 17, and 47.25 cents below a year ago. The 500-pound barrels finished at $1.44, 4 cents lower, and 43 cents below a year ago. There were two trades of barrel on the week and 22 of block, with 133 loads for the month of May, up from 90 in April.

Dairy Market News reports that milk output is strong in the Central region, but contacts say busy schedules are keeping spot volumes from becoming excessive. Class III spot milk prices ranged from $5-under to $2-over at mid-week. Cheesemakers were running busy schedules following the long holiday weekend. Some plants purchased milk from processors with downtime last week, near the bottom of the range, while others said lighter spot availability was keeping prices steady. Plenty of cheese is available in the region. Domestic demand was steady to higher as contacts reported increased retail demand, but note that food service sales remain light. Export cheese demand is steady.

Cheese manufacturers in the West reported that contractual milk intake needs were met. Spot milk availability varied however. Demand from cheese manufacturers was mixed. Cheese production was stronger following the holiday weekend. Domestic demand is steady. The retail sector continues to outpace food service. Demand from international buyers is strong, but some sellers reported that trades are not being negotiated quickly, according to DMN.

Butter got a bounce on the short week, climbing to $1.6675 per pound last Friday, 13.25 cents higher on the week, highest since April 28, but still 80.75 cents below a year ago. There were 104 trades on the week and 380 for the month, up from 341 in April.

Cream production is steady in the Central region. Class II processors continue to pull on inventories, keeping spot volumes available but somewhat snug. Some butter makers in the Southwest were bringing in cream from other regions. Some butter makers had downtime early in the week for the holiday but were running full schedules going forward. Domestic butter demand is steady. Export interest varies, as some contacts said they were having success moving loads to other countries, while others reported softening demand.

Spot loads of butter are available, but 82% and unsalted butter inventories are tighter than 80% salted, says DMN.

Grade A nonfat dry milk fell to $2.0425 per pound last Tuesday, lowest CME price since April 8, but it regained a nickel last Wednesday, and closed last Friday at $2.09, 1.75 cents higher on the week, and 80.25 cents above a year ago. Sales totaled 37 loads on the week and 116 for all of May, up from 48 in April.

Dry whey closed last Friday at 70 cents per pound, 2 cents higher on the week, and 12.75 cents above a year ago. There were seven sales posted on the week.

Canadian Quotas

In politics, the National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council reiterated their call for the U.S. Trade Representative to use the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) joint review process to address Canada's "distortionary nonfat milk solids export practices." Their statement followed last Wednesday's release of the U.S. International Trade Commission's Section 332 report, "Nonfat Milk Solids: Competitive Conditions for the United States and Major Foreign Suppliers."

"The report confirms what NMPF and USDEC have long documented," said a joint press release; "That Canadian milk production quotas that aim to match domestic supply and demand for butterfat lead to a level of raw milk production that results in a domestic structural surplus of (nonfat milk solids) components."

Meanwhile, there was good news for the dairy industry and consumers in a new study from the University of Reading. The study found "Trans-fats found naturally in dairy foods such as milk, butter and cheese do not increase the risk of heart disease or type 2 diabetes," according to a university press release.

"Researchers analyzed evidence from 22 studies involving thousands of people across Europe, Canada and the United States and found that natural trans-fats behave very differently in the body from the industrial kind. Unlike industrial trans-fats, which are strongly linked to heart disease, those found in dairy appear to pose no risk," according to the study.

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