June Cow Numbers, Output Climbs Above 2025 Rates
Published: Friday, July 3, 2026
U.S. dairy cow numbers and output per cow continue to climb, keeping milk output above that of a year ago for the 14th consecutive month, but the growth is slowing. The USDA's latest data shows May output at 20.565 billion pounds, up 2.3% from May 2025, and follows a 2.7% rise in April. The 24-state May total was 19.767 billion pounds, up 2.4% and followed a 2.8% gain.
April output in the 50 states was revised down 5 million pounds to 19.955 billion, still 2.7% above a year ago. The 24-state total was revised down 1 million pounds, to 19.175 billion.
May cow numbers totaled 9.665 million, up 10,000 from the April count, which was revised up 10,000 head and was up 184,000 head, or 1.9%, from a year ago. The 24-state count, at 9.225 million, was up 7,000 from the April total, which was revised up 8,000 head, and was 182,000 head, or 2%, above a year ago.
May milk per cow averaged 2,128 pounds in the 50 states, up 8 pounds, or .4%, from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,143 pounds, was up 9 pounds, or .4%, from 2025. The April average was revised down 2 pounds in both.
California output hit 3.6 billion pounds, up 43 million, or 1.2%, from a year ago. Cow numbers were up 4,000 and output per cow was up 20 pounds. Wisconsin produced just under 2.9 billion pounds, up a whopping 65 million pounds, or 2.4%. Cow numbers were up 29,000, with output per cow unchanged.
Idaho output was up 45 million pounds, or 2.9%, on 17,000 more cows. Output per cow was up 10 pounds. Indiana was up 2% on 4,000 more cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Kansas continued to show the biggest percentage gain, up 21.2% from a year ago, on 41,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow.
Michigan was up 2.7% on 12,000 more cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Minnesota was up 2.1% on 7,000 more cows. Output per cow was up 10 pounds.
StoneX stated, "Component adjusted production was up 4%. The fat content in milk was only up .7% year over year (YoY) in January-April, but it was up 1.7% YoY in May. It might be a blip or it could be a resumption of the long-run trend. With the herd still building, milk production growth is expected to stay ample through the end of the year unless weather or disease issues knock it back."
The USDA's latest weekly slaughter report showed 45,800 dairy cows sent to slaughter the week ending June 13, up 900 head, or 2%, from a year ago. Year to date 1,256,800 had been culled, up 59,100 head, or 4.9%, from a year ago.
Concern remains regarding the future dairy herd. A new report from CoBank points out that, while it has reached its largest size in 30 years, "Replacement heifers that represent the next generation of milk cows remains historically low."
"The number of heifers available to enter the milking herd has fallen sharply, dropping to the lowest level since 1978," said CoBank. "The decline comes as strong financial incentives are prompting dairy farmers to produce calves destined for the beef supply rather than milk production."
The report warns, "Replacement heifer supplies are projected to shrink even further in 2026 before beginning to rebound in 2027. With replacements in short supply producers are retaining adult dairy cows that would have typically been culled, contributing to the overall increase in the U.S. herd. Producers are making more beef-on-dairy calves, further tightening dairy replacement heifer supplies. This has pushed heifer prices into record territory, well over $3,000 per head."
"On most dairy farms, net margins are currently being driven by the beef check, not the milk check," said Corey Geiger, CoBank lead dairy economist. "Five years ago, calf and cull cow sales accounted for 5% of a dairy farm's bottom line while milk sales represented 95% of their revenue. Today, beef sales account for 12% to 15% of revenue on many farms, with some operations approaching 20% when measured on a per hundredweight basis. That shift is reshaping the U.S. dairy herd, most notably through the decline in replacement heifers," Geiger said.
Checking the cooler, U.S. butter stocks continued to grow in May but were still below those a year ago, again thanks to good domestic demand and continuing exports. USDA's latest Cold Storage report has May stocks at 335.6 million pounds, up 27.7 million pounds, or 9%, from April, but were 29.2 million, or 8%, below May 2025. The April total was revised up 333,000 pounds from last month's report.
American-type cheese stocks grew to 816.9 million pounds, up 3.3 million, or .4%, from the April level, which was revised down 3.9 million pounds. Stocks were down 18.2 million pounds. or 2.2%, from a year ago.
The "other" cheese holdings totaled 581.2 million pounds, up 7.8 million pounds, or 1.4%, from April, and were up 2.1 million pounds, or .4%, from a year ago. The April total was revised down 1.8 million pounds.
The total cheese inventory hit 1.423 billion pounds, up 12.3 million, or .9%, from April, but still 13.9 million pounds, or 1%, below those a year ago.
In politics, the Senate Agriculture Committee completed its farm bill. The National Milk Producers Federation said the bill will "bring greater certainty to producers," and listed the key dairy highlights which include mandatory cost and yield surveys to ensure future changes to Federal Milk Marketing Orders reflect the most current market conditions, building off funding in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA); extending the Dairy Indemnity Program and the Dairy Promotion and Research Program and making permanent the Dairy Forward Pricing Program.
The bill also supports voluntary, producer-led conservation programs, such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, with a continued designation of conservation funds for livestock producers and streamlines the process for conservation Technical Service Provider certification to ensure producers have access to qualified individuals to help fill the gaps in needed technical assistance.
It also establishes a long-term policy directive for the government to proactively negotiate protections for common cheese names like "parmesan" and "feta," and reassigns export promotion funding initially included in the OBBBA into existing farm bill programs like the Market Access Program to make it easier to use by USDA's international promotion partners, including the U.S. Dairy Export Council. Complete details are posted on the NMPF website.
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